Panama Papers

Lots of speculation and misinformation about.  I think Chris Black has it figured out.

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Turkey’s Act of War

The outrageous Turkish downing of the Russian bomber clarifies who is fighting whom.  It is abundantly clear that Turkey is fully allied with ISIS, and the US is backing al-Qaeda in Syria.  Russian success at taking out ISIS positions has humiliated the US’s own campaign, revealing western hypocrisy that they want to destroy ISIS.  In fact, the west’s agenda has always been about regime change in Syria, using ISIS as a tool to help facilitate that.  These facts are now obvious to all, including MSM.

This is an act of war by Turkey, and could be the trigger to dramatically broaden the ME conflict.  Where is the outrage?  Where is the international condemnation?  Such hypocrisy.

Is this what the next global war looks like?  Are we in it now?  It begins slowly, and then happens all at once.

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What Happened in Paris

I don’t know.  But here are some intriguing thoughts outside of the mainstream “it was ISIS” meme:

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Sleeping through a Revolution

An excellent presentation by Jonathan Taplan of the USC Annenberg Innovation Lab.

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Time to Panic?

If you can keep a calm head in these times, perhaps you just don’t understand the situation.

Yield rates on 10y bonds have been really wacky.  As have currency rates.  Big movements.  Lots of concern about liquidity in bond markets.

Did something finally give?  Did a derivatives bomb explode? Did it take out Deutsch Bank?

As an add-on, Golem XIV offers an interesting read — “Trapped in a Bubble”.  There is no price discovery in financial markets.  The market goes up and up, regardless of the underlying fundamentals of any company.  It is a ponzi kept alive without new entrants, with new money being pumped in by the Central Banks, ie back-stopped by the clueless 99.9% via endless QE and back door subsidies like ZIRP.

There’s no way out of here. When you come in, you’re in for good.” — David Gilmore

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Who has the Gold Makes the Rules

But, what if the gold does not exist?  Can they still make the rules?

Here is a fascinating analysis of US gold reserve audits by Koos Jansen.  It is well worth the read.  The net is US “audits” of its gold horde are an illusion, and likely a conspiracy.  Official USG audits are missing, assayers are unnamed and not independent.  And the gold held by the NY Fed Reserve has never been properly audited and is now officially exempt from being audited.  Coincidentally, the gold vaults at the NYFed are connected via an underground tunnel to 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza.  Read this post by BullionStar gold researcher Ronan Manly for more information on the construction of the FRBNY vault and the connection to the vault across the street that was owned by JP Morgan, but recently bought by Fosun (October 2013), a Chinese investment conglomerate.  How weird is that?

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Currency Contagion

Something big is clearly going on.

BoC lowering overnight lending rate by 25 basis points is a major move that will further weaken the Canadian dollar.  The BoC appears to be joining other countries (plus Euro) in depreciating its currency against the US$.

The yield on US treasuries is dropping, which forced the BoC to drop its key rate or face a rising currency as global investors chase yield. Lending credence to the idea that the BoC wants a weaker currency.

The other major currency event that ocurred is the SNB move last week.  Canada must have briefed the Fed and other central banks of its plans, and probably got the go-ahead. I think the SNB acted unilaterally.

Is this the prelude to a much more significant event related to the US$?  Perhaps the dropping yeild on US treasuries (and rising price) is blowing up interest rate derivatives, which have all been betting on rising rates.  Oil and energy derivatives have already gone nuclear.  The carnage from oil/energy, currencies and now interest rates has got to be huge.  Maybe the bubble has actually burst.

Find a safe haven.

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Swiss Franc

Wow.  Talk about shock and awe.  Destroyed anyone short the Franc.  I think the SNB wanted to decouple the Franc from the Euro before QE starts next week.

Absolute turmoil in the markets right now.  Oil, copper, US$ index pushing $0.93, 10yr UST  at 1.746%.  Gold is up to $1,265.

There are $billions in market losses for bad derivative bets.  Hidden for now, but will be revealed shortly.  I’ll bet some big banks are on the ropes.  Deutsch Bank, JPM, BofA, SocGen, Citicorp, Morgan Stanley, Barclays are prime candidates.  Goldman Sachs alumni are all in place at central banks, so they have the inside scoop and probably positioned accordingly.

The largest loss known to date from last week’s action by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) occurred at Everest Capital’s flagship hedge fund, Everest Capital Global. According to reports from Reuters, the WSJ and Bloomberg, the flagship fund will close after being essentially wiped out from a bet the Swiss Franc would fall in value.  The company was believed to have lost almost all of the flagship fund’s assets of approximately $830 million. How a “hedge” fund could wipe itself out on one strategy calls into question the very meaning of “hedge” fund.

2015 is off to a raging start.

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2015 – It ain’t going to be pretty

This is a collection of predictions for 2015 by various thinkers.  Not much to be hopeful about, unless you like chaos and calamity.

James Kunstler
The giant con.  Each dollar of debt generates less than a dollar of output.
long Nikkei/short gold/long silver hedgeand here.  More manipulation of the markets?

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Double Helix: the Dragon and the Bear

The double helix of the Dragon and the Bear or here.  From Vineyard of the Saker.  More to come on this topic.

$9 trillion US$ carry-trade blew up oil
– Institutionalized TBTF. Ellen Brown-5 Big Banks will Survive Next Financial Calamity-Everybody Else Bankrupt.
Dmitry Orlov summarizes the current geopolitical situation. Basically, Anglo-imperialists, i.e. the combination of Britain and the US, are being tossed out of Eurasia, ergo all the turmoil. Most of the major Eurasian players — China, Russia, India, Iran, much of Central Asia — are cementing their ties around the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), to which the US isn’t even admitted as an observer. It will be an interesting 2015.
While the U.S. remains embroiled in endless wars, the world is defecting to the East
Peculiarities of Russian national character.  More insight from Dmitry Orlov

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