Asymmetric Warfare in the Middle East, the Axis of Resistance

Interesting read from Moon of Alabama.

Despite US insistence on blaming Iran directly for all the mischief in the Middle East, the article argues that there are a long list of factions that have bones to pick with the US, e.g. the Houthis, Hezbollah, Iraqis, Syria … What Iran has provided is training and encouragement that these groups coordinate their efforts to a common goal. This even includes making their weapons, rather than relying on Iran to provide them.

I liken it to the head of the Hydra, cut it off and more pop out. What we are seeing, and what the US is facing, is a very fluid enemy with no single point of coordination. The US has a multitude of assets throughout the ME that are clearly vulnerable to missile and drone attacks. US bases are under a continuous barrage of attacks, as are the ships. In the last few days, a US flagged cargo ship was hit by a Houthi missile, and the US Embassy in Iraq was hit by Iranian missiles. It is only a matter of time before a major asset, e.g. carrier, gets destroyed.

It was abundantly clear in Ukraine that the US/NATO (NATO being the collective “West”) militaries were built for a world that no longer exists. Warfare is commoditized and asymmetric. US “enemies” have learned and adapted, and will not engage according to the US playbook.

The commoditization of warfare is profound. The Houthis are sending suicide drones costing as little as a few thousand dollars to attack US battlegroups. Of course, they have little chance of penetrating the protective air shield. But, each retaliatory US missile costs between $1 and $5 million dollars. And a destroyer typically will carry only about 125 of these missiles.

The drone attacks serve three purposes: 1) makes the cost of the deployment increasingly painful; 2) depletes the stock of missiles, forcing the destroyer to go to port to replenish, which also removes the battlegroup from its field of operation; 3) maintains the pressure to blockade maritime traffic through the Red Sea. The tiny Houthi faction has effectively castrated the US navy. Incredible.

And, what we also learned in Ukraine, the US/NATO has little industrial capacity to replenish stocks of munitions, missiles, and war machines. This is a profound weakness, possibly an Achilles heal of the US military. Further, vaunted US/NATO assets — Patriot missile system, Leopard tanks, Bradley Fighting Vehicles — are incredibly vulnerable. Clearly, this has not gone unnoticed by friends and enemies alike. Hence, attacks on US assets are becoming bolder.

Who knows what the next flash point is going to be. But, consider recent history. US/NATO lost to Russia in Ukraine. As that winds down, Hamas attacks Israel, forcing the US to disengage from Ukraine and supply Israel with the weaponry it needs. The Houthis draw the US into kinetic engagement by blockading the Red Sea. The ME is further grinding down the US military. Then Venezuela moves to seize Guyana offshore oil fields. UK has responded by sending a destroyer down there, but US will likely get drawn in as the situation deteriorates. A further distraction for US forces.

For the future, the most visible likely flashpoint will be Taiwan. China has unequivocally said it will unify Taiwan into China. It is not a stretch to think that China was behind what is going on in the ME, and Venezuela’s bold move (Venezuela is a client state of China). Both further weakening US ability to respond once it makes a move on Taiwan.

There are likely others. Who would have expected Venezuela to make such a move?

The biggest boogeyman is the potential for a coordinated attack on the US homeland. The southern invasion, mostly by military aged men, undoubtedly facilitated (yes, facilitated, i.e. planned and enabled by the Democrats) enemy cells to penetrate the US. Undoubtedly. It is likely that a lot of the mischief already occurring — train derailments, food processing plants burning down, weird explosions on buildings — are attacks from within. What’s next? The power grid? Bridges? Dams? Other infrastructure? Lots of opportunity for mischief.

Which brings up pure conjecture. With Trump’s unassailable victory in Iowa, he is clearly poised for victory in November. “If” there is an election. But, suppose martial law is imposed and an election cannot be held. Could this be the Democrat/Globalist’s Hail Mary plan, to trigger martial law by enabling terrorist cells to attack the homeland? Col Douglas MacGregor and others have conjectured that an election may not occur.

Clearly, Lawfare attacks have only increased Trump’s popularity. Democrats/Globalists are desperate that Trump not get reelected. They will stop at nothing. NOTHING!

2024 is going to be a defining year for the future.

… by the way, has anyone actually seen Lloyd Austin?